Tag: Featured

July was hot!

Widespread heat set record temps globally

July was remarkably warm, in fact July’s average temperatures—for both land and sea–were the highest monthly temperatures ever recorded since 1850.  This image from NOAA illustrates some of the more noteworthy records set last month.


Source:  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201907

I should also mention that Berkeley Earth (http://berkeleyearth.org), in their summary of 2018 global temperatures published early this year, estimated that 2019 would “…likely… be warmer than 2018, but unlikely to be warmer than the current record year, 2016.  At present it appears that there is roughly a 50% likelihood that 2019 will become the 2nd warmest years since 1850.” As of August 15, they are now predicting a 90% probability of this occurring.   This screenshot from Robert Rohde’s (BerkeleyEarth) Twitter feed illustrates long-term weather stations (those with at least 40 years of records) that have reported a daily, monthly or all-time record high temperature from May 1st to July 31st.  Looks like a sea of red!

Screenshot, August 19 @RARohde

Some of the more attention-grabbing aspects of the late July heat wave came from Greenland.

Warm air masses from Europe arrived over Greenland late in July and early August, causing record-setting melting across about 90% of the ice sheet during a five-day event.  Melt area reached 154,500 square miles, 18% larger than the 1988-2017 average. The record warmth established an all-time high melt event for this monthly period, and total ice mass loss for 2019 is nearly equal to that of 2012, the year of highest loss for the satellite-era.  (National Snow and Ice Data Center Greenland Today)

It’s not all about the records!

Considerable attention has been given to elevated Arctic temperatures, increased ice-sheet melt and its contributions to sea-level rise,  and low seasonal sea-ice coverage, but several other issues attending warming air and sea temperatures warrant discussion as well.   Over the longer term—decades, not days, warming temperatures are measurably impacting terrestrial and marine ecosystems.  These “slow” ecosystem changes aren’t as attention-grabbing as all-time records of high temperature or ice melt, but are one of the distinguishing characteristics of the Anthropocene. (see “The Anthropocene” tab on the Home page).  Let’s look at a couple of examples, one from terrestrial ecosystems, and one from marine ecosystems. 

In a July 10 article (Hydrologic Intensity) the authors demonstrate in a more complete fashion than previous work, the linkage between rising air temperatures and acceleration of the hydrological cycle.  Their model incorporates both the supply of water (precipitation) and demand (evapotranspiration) between the surface and the atmosphere.  Reinforcing other research that suggests hydrologic intensification is occurring, the new research shows “widespread hydrologic intenstification from 1979-2017 across much of the global land surface, which is expected to continue into the future.”  The findings add a little more support to the likelihood of a climate future where there is “increased precipitation intensity along with more days with low precipitation.”  The temporal and spatial distribution of hydrologic intensification will have important consequences ranging from urban flood control to the management of  agroecosystems—an issue of considerable importance as population rises this century. 

Marine fisheries are also significant food sources for global populations.  In an article published in March (Science https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/979) researchers looked at 235 marine fisheries (fish and invertebrates) from 38 ecoregions, representing one-third of reported global catch.   They  concluded that there has been a statistically significant decline in the maximum sustainable yield of 4.1% from 1930 to 2010 that is linked to warming oceans. Five of the ecoregions had losses of 15 to 35%. The authors conclude that “ocean warming has driven declines in marine fisheries productivity and the potential for sustainable fisheries catches.”  These trends are exacerbated by overfishing, but sound management plans incorporating temperature-driven trends have the potential for remediating these changes. 

Both examples suggest that temperature-driven changes to key provisioning services of  terrestrial and marine ecosystems are of equal importance to the headline-grabbing temperature and ice-melt records of the last month.  These changes are “slow-motion” impacts of a warming world; like rising sea-levels, ecosystem changes will have profound impacts, but are invisible over short-term news and policy cycles in which we appear to be ensnared.   

Blog Image Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145377/a-second-scorching-heatwave-in-europe

More veggies, less meat to help save forests and climate

The recently (Aug 7) released Special Report on Climate Change and Land by the IPCC (https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/) offers a comprehensive review of the nexus between global warming/climate change and land use change.  As I have already suggested in the “About this blog,” land use changes are a critical aspect of global anthropogenic change; i.e. the Anthropocene. The new report stresses how a changing climate (increased air temperatures, evapotranspiration, altered precipitation regimes, etc.) impact soils and vegetation.  The latter underlie ecosystem health, including agroecosystems, as well as intact “undisturbed” terrestrial ecosystems such as rainforests, peatland, and coastal forests.  These are critical harbors of biodiversity, as well as essential elements in the provision of ecosystem services upon which human well-being depends, such as carbon sequestration and clean water. 

Land use changes associated with agriculture, forestry, livestock, road construction, and urbanization degrade these critical services, thereby threatening our ability to sustainably provide food, fiber and other essential goods and services to a continually growing, telecoupled global population.  Imprudent and ill-planned (or adhoc) conversion of various terrestrial ecosystems in pursuit of food, fiber and mineral resources has led to land degradation, desertification and biodiversity loss at both a scale and speed that are without precedent.

The report emphasizes the urgent need to rein in these unsustainable practices in order to both guarantee our ability to provide food for the world, as well as provide a crucial sink for growing carbon emissions.  According to the report, reducing forest deforestation and degradation are critical elements in mitigating green house gas emissions.  Furthermore, transitioning the global population to a much more plant-based diet from one that is significantly animal-sourced, will reduce risks from climate change as well as help reduce agricultural extensification. 

Only a wide-ranging and comprehensive approach to managing both our energy and land resources will provide sustainable, equitable and healthy outcomes for the global population.  Immediate steps need to be taken, because the longer business as usual behaviors continue, our ability to deploy a wide variety of remedies will be increasingly foreclosed.  Reducing green house emissions and altering detrimental land use practices are thus interconnected, inseparable and our failure to change both may lead to both irremediable impacts to ecosystems and the goods and services upon which humanity relies.

Image: Photo by Tobias Quartey on Unsplash https://unsplash.com/photos/v55hpwzuZmI

Sea Level Rise

Photo by Mink Mingle on Unsplash
           
  • February 2019:  91 (+/- 4mm)  (Data since January 1, 1993)
  • Current Rate of Change:  +3.3 mm/year
    • 20th century average:  1.7 mm/year
  • Sources of sea level rise in the last decade
    • Endorheic global decline
    • 65%-85% due to thermal expansion (~1.1-1.4mm/yr)
    • Greenland, Antarctica ice sheet mass loss (~1.1-1.3mm/yr)
    • ~20-35% from other sources including mountain glacier and ice-cap loss, groundwater depletion, reservoir impoundment, and mass changes in other stores; e.g., lakes, soil, permafrost
    • the cumulative global groundwater depletion from 1900–2008 totaled ∼4,500 km3 from 1900–2008, equivalent to a sea‐level rise of 12.6 mm. As an identifiable, separate, semi‐independent hydrologic process, the volume and rate of estimated long‐term global groundwater depletion balances 6 to 7 percent of the observed SLR since 1900. (Konikow LF (2011) Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea-level rise. Geophys Res Lett 38(17), L17401. doi: 10.1029/2011gl048604)

Sea level rise is due to thermal expansion of seawater as it accumulates heat (see         above) and additional water from melting ice sheets and glaciers.

  Observed sea level since the start of the satellite altimeter record in 1993 (black line), plus independent estimates of the different contributions to sea level rise: thermal expansion (red) and added water, mostly due to glacier melt (blue). Added together (purple line), these separate estimates match the observed sea level very well. NOAA Climate.gov graphic, adapted from Figure 3.15a in State of the Climate in 2017.

Sea Level Tracked By Satellite Data 1993-Present


Source:  NASA Sea Level

Sea Level Derived From Coastal Tide Gauge Data 1870-2000


Source:  NASA Sea Level

               

Climate Change: Global Temperature

Visualizing Global Temperature Change:  “Small multiples” global temperature changes 1850-2017

–>
Mapping global temperature change 

Surface Air Temperature

  • 2018*:  +1.16oC (2.09oF) above 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline average temperature
  • 4th warmest year on Earth since 1850
  • 6th warmest year in the Arctic
  • Global temperatures have risen at a rate of +0.19oC/decade (+0.34oF) since 1980
  • 1.5 oC will be reached by 2035 at current rates
  • Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe.
  • Arctic air temperatures for the last five years (2014-2018) have exceeded all previous records since 1900
  • Surface air temperatures in the Arctic continued to warm at twice the rate relative to the rest of the globe.
  • Arctic air temperatures for the last five years (2014-2018) have exceeded all previous records since 1900
  • Source: (NOAA Arctic)

*Source: Berkeley Earth Land+Ocean Dataset

Visualizing Global Temperature Change:  Ed Hawkins’ global temperature spiral


Click!  Global temperature change gif  (Ed Hawkins)

     

Agreement about the rise in global temperatures comes from multiple groups around the world…


Yearly global surface temperature from 1900–2017 compared to the 1981-2010 average (dashed line). The different colors represent different research groups’ analysis of the historical temperature record. NOAA Climate.gov graph adapted from State of the Climate in 2017Details on the datasets can be found in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1 in the report.   Global Surface Temperature

Yearly global surface temperature from 1900–2017 compared to the 1981-2010 average (dashed line). The different colors represent different research groups’ analysis of the historical temperature record. NOAA Climate.gov graph adapted from State of the Climate in 2017. Details on the datasets can be found in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1 in the report.  

Arctic Surface Air Temperatures (NOAA Arctic)

At +1.7° C, the mean annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for October 2017-September 2018 for land stations north of 60° N is the second highest value (after 2016) in the record starting in 1900.  Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of global mean temperatures; a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification.  Recorded annual mean Arctic temperatures over the past five years (2014-18) all exceed previous records.


Arctic (land stations north of 60° N) and global mean annual land surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies (in °C) for the period 1900-2018 relative to the 1981-2010 mean value.

It’s not just Berkeley Earth documenting global temperature…

Other scientific groups around the world document similar global temperature trends

      Global temperatures have been trending upwards, above the long-term average for more than 40 years.


The graph shows average annual global temperatures since 1880  (source data) compared to the long-term average (1901-2000). The zero line represents the long-term average temperature for the whole planet; blue and red bars show the difference above or below average for each year. NOAA Global Temperature Change

The period since 2015 has seen some of the warmest years since 1850. The probability distribution shown below clarifies this; note how 2016 was markedly warmer on average than earlier years.


Probability distribution on the mean temperature anomalies reveals 2015-2018 as a period of significant warmth well above all previous years since 1850.

Distribution of warming is uneven, but as in previous years, 2018 was characterized by very strong warming over the Arctic that significantly exceeds the Earth’s mean rate of warming.


44% of the Earth had “Very High” or higher temperatures in 2018.  If we lived in a world characterized by a stable climate, only 2.5% of the Earth would have been expected to have these temperatures.

Surface air temperature 2018:  Concurrent heat events (see

Source:  Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Wartenburger, R., Dee, D., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2019). Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across Northern Hemisphere due to human-induced climate change. Earth’s Future, 7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001189 (See table below)

  • Twenty-two percent of populated and agricultural areas of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced hot extremes between May and July 2018 
  • Record-breaking temperatures occurred concurrently in multiple regions including North America, Europe, and Asia in late spring/summer 2018.
  •  Europe experienced late spring and summer temperatures that were more than 1◦C warmer than 1981–2010
  • The contiguous United States had the warmest May since 1895, and the hottest month ever observed was in July in Death Valley.
  • The 2018 hot temperatures are in line with an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme heat events over many regions on land and in the ocean in recent years.
  • It is virtually certain that these 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events could not have occurred without human-induced climate change
  • We would experience a GCWH18-like event* nearly 2 out of 3 years at +1.5 ◦C and every year at +2 ◦C global warming
  • Results further reveal that the average high-exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 ◦C of global warming.

*the temporal average between May and July 2018 as considered Global Concurrent Warm and Hot 2018 event, in short, GCWH18 extreme event.


Approximate locations of heat-related impacts in the northern midlatitudes (above 30north).
The impacts are categorized according to heat impact (cross, purple text), fires (fire, red text), agricultural and ecological damages (wheat, orange text), damages to infrastructure (railway track, brown text), and impacts on power production reduction/shortage (warning signal, blue text).


Detailed heat-related impacts per country. The color refers to the categories in (a).  References for each heat-related impact and original table available at Vogel, et al.(see above)

Business As Usual Projections of Global Surface Temperature Will Push Global Temperatures Above 1.5 degrees C by 2035.


2 oC, often suggested as a risky,“next best” global temperature (2 degrees Celsius) will be reached by around 2060.

Climate Change: Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide

Global Temperature Change from 1850-2018. Graphics available for the globe and most countries. Ed Hawkins https://showyourstripes.info
Record high 414.71 ppm carbon dioxide reached June 13, 2019
No precedent for this level of carbon dioxide in over 800,000 years of ice core data

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_full_record.pdf

View of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa from Haleakala
Photo by Ralph Howland on Unsplash
The Keeling Curve–the iconic documentation of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere from 1958

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/primary_mlo_co2_record

The atmospheric abundance of CO2 has increased by an average of 1.83 ppm per year over the past 40 years (1979-2018). The CO2 increase is accelerating — while it averaged about 1.6 ppm per year in the 1980s and 1.5 ppm per year in the 1990s, the growth rate increased to 2.3 ppm per year during the last decade (2009-2018). The annual CO2 increase from 1 Jan 2018 to 1 Jan 2019 was 2.5 ± 0.1 ppm (see https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html), which is slightly higher than the average of the previous decade, and much higher than the two decades before that.

NOAA Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing


The relentless rise of carbon  dioxide

Total Global CO2 Emissions

Photo by Martin Adams on Unsplash

Carbon dioxide emissions grew by 2.0% in 2018, the fastest growth for seven years; China (2.2% increase), India (7% increase) and the U.S.(2.6% increase) were responsible for around 69% of global emissions uptick (https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-bp-data-reveals-record-CO2-emissions-in-2018-driven-by-surging-use-of-gas)

Total global carbon dioxide emissions in 2017: 41.2±2.8 GtCO2; 53% increase over 1990 (Source: Global Carbon Project)

  • Carbon dioxide emissions attributable to land-use change are highly uncertain, with no clear trend in the last decade
  • Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950. In 1960 land-use change emissions accounted for 43% of emissions; between 2008-2017 they averaged 13%. In total, CO2 from land-use change accounts for 31% of cumulative emissions between 1870-2017.
  • Fossil CO2 emissions now dominate global changes: Coal (32%), Oil (25%), Gas (10%), Others (2%) account for 69% of cumulative emissions between 1870-2017.

Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2008-2017)


Source: Global Carbon Project Carbon Budget 2018 GCP Presentation
Source :  Figures from the Global Carbon Budget 2018 

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) (EPA N2O)


Shanghai, China  Photo by Holger Link on Unsplash

Radiative Forcing:  298 times that of CO2 over a 100 year period Residence time: 114 years

Sources:

  • Anthropogenic (40%)
  • Agriculture (soil management—fertilizers, manure, burning of agricultural residues)
  • Fuel Combustion
  • Industry
  • Wastewater treatment

Growth of nitrous oxide

Red line is a linear fit to the global mean data demonstrating a fairly constant annual growth rate greater than 0.75 ppb/year

Global history of nitrous oxide as a function of latitude (y-axis) and time (x-axis).

Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

Black Carbon: 6600Gg (2015)

  • Radiative Forcing:    Black Carbon (BC) has a strong influence on radiative forcing, affecting the climate globally and regionally, and is responsible for a significant proportion of the global forcing to date.
    • Bond (2013)*  estimated that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate-forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. For comparison, the radiative forcings including indirect effects from emissions of the two most significant long-lived greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), in 2005 were +1.56 and +0.86 W m-2, respectively.
    • BC deposited on the cryosphere leads to enhanced melting rates and can affect the intensity and distribution of precipitation. Climate and Clean Air Coalition
    • Residence Time:  4–12 days

! ! Global emission estimates have uncertainties of about a factor of 2 (i.e., -50% to +100%) or even by a factor of 3 (See Climate and Clean Air Coalition)

Sources

  • Domestic biomass combustion (especially in traditional cookstoves)
  • Open-burning of municipal solid waste
  • Crop residue open-burning in the field
  • Traditional brick kilns
  • Forest fires and savanna burning
  • Traditional coke ovens
  • Charcoal making
  • Flaring from oil gas extraction and processing
  • Transportation (diesel engines in on-and off-road vehicles, ships, generators)

*Bond, T. C., Doherty, S. J., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Berntsen, T., DeAngelo, B. J., Flanner, M. G., Ghan, S., Kärcher, B., Koch, D., Kinne, S., Kondo, Y., Quinn, P. K., Sarofim, M. C., Schultz, M. G., Schul, M., Venkataraman, C., Zhang, H., Zhang, S., Bellouin, N., Guttikunda, S. K., Hopke, P. K., Jacobson, M. Z., Kaiser, J. W., Klimont, Z., Lohmann, U., Schwarz, J. P., Shindell, D., Storelvmo, T., Warren, S. G., and Zender, C. S.: Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5380– 5552, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50171, 2013.


EPA Black Carbon

Global Methane: 1856.2 ppb (February 2018)

Source: NOAA methane trends

  • Radiative Forcing:  84 times stronger than CO2 per unit of mass in a 20 year period; 28 times greater over a 100 year period
  • Residence Time:  12 years
  • Key precursor to tropospheric ozone formation (see “Particulates and Ozone”)
  • Anthropogenic Sources (60% of global total emissions)
  • Livestock enteric fermentation (see note below chart)
  • Livestock manure
  • Rice cultivation
  • Miscellaneous agricultural sources
  • Waste treatment
  • Waste water treatment

Blue Arrow:  After a 7 year near-zero growth, methane emissions surged starting in 2007, and accelerated again in 2014.  Over half of all anthropogenic methane emissions are attributable to agriculture.  The recent surge in methane may be due in part (~50%) to an increase in ruminant emissions as well as a possible spike in tropical wetland emissions (Rising methane:  a new challenge). Rising methane emissions were not accounted for in IPCC projections of atmospheric temperature change; decreasing methane emissions were assumed.

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

The abundances of the majority of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs) that were originally controlled under the Montreal Protocol are now declining, as their emissions are smaller than the rate at which they are destroyed. In contrast, the abundances of most of the replacement compounds, HCFCs and hydrofluorocarbons are increasing. (United Nations Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2018)



Linkages between stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change, including environmental effects and potential consequences for human well-being, food and water security, and the sustainability of ecosystems (solid lines), with important feedback effects driven by human action (double-arrow solid lines) and other processes (dashed lines).

Source: Environmental Effects and Interactions of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

Introduction

  The ozone hole is not technically a “hole” where no ozone is present, but is actually a region of exceptionally depleted ozone in the stratosphere over the Antarctic that happens at the beginning of Southern Hemisphere spring (August–October). Satellite instruments provide us with daily images of ozone over the Antarctic region. The ozone hole image shows the very low values (blue and purple colored area) centered over Antarctica on 4 October 2004. From the historical record we know that total column ozone values of less than 220 Dobson Units were not observed prior to 1979. From an aircraft field mission over Antarctica we also know that a total column ozone level of less than 220 Dobson Units is a result of catalyzed ozone loss from chlorine and bromine compounds. For these reasons, we use 220 Dobson Units as the boundary of the region representing ozone loss. Using the daily snapshots of total column ozone, we can calculate the area on the Earth that is enclosed by a line with values of 220 Dobson Units (the white line in the figure).                     Source:  NASA Ozone Watch 

Antarctic Situation June 24 2019 Source: UK Met Ozone

  • The 2018 ozone hole:  The polar vortex began to form in early May and reached its maximum area in late September at around 34 million square kilometres.  It was a little larger than the decadal mean in size, and was generally of average or above average stability.  The ozone hole grew rapidly and by its maximum in late September was above the average size for the decade at 24.8 million square kilometres.  The area with ozone hole values had declined to zero by the end of November, later than in the last two years, but sooner than the decadal average.    NASA observations show that a minimum ozone amount of 102 DU was reached on October 11 and 12.  Although this is a low value it is not as low as around 1990 to 2000.  Ozone depletion would have been much worse this year without the protection of the Montreal Protocol.
  • Although the amount of ozone destroying substances in the atmosphere is going down, the inter-annual variation in the size and depth of the ozone hole is largely controlled by the meteorological conditions in the stratosphere. 
  • A simple extrapolation of the trend in minimum values gives the final year with ozone hole levels as 2073, though the error bars on this estimate are very large.  Models suggest that recovery may be more rapid after 2010. 
  • It is still too soon to say that we have had the worst ever ozone hole, particularly as there has been no major volcanic eruption in the Southern Hemisphere since 1992.  There has also been little cooling of the lower stratosphere since the mid 1990s. 

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)

Observations reported in Nature in May 2018 showed that the rate of decline of CFC-11, an ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere, which is also a greenhouse gas, had become slower than predicted.  This suggested that either something unusual was taking place in the atmosphere or that there were additional man-made emissions.  The paper suggested that the most likely reason was illegal manufacture and release from somewhere in eastern Asia.  Investigation by the EIA has found that production of polyurethene foam in China can explain the observed changes.  They encourage the Chinese government to take immediate action.  This became news again in May 2019 when another paper was published in Nature.

Source:  UK Met Ozone

Hydrofluorocarbons & Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) Source: HFC’s

HCFCs are growing at a rate of 8-15%/year

Radiative ForcingThe most abundant HFC is 1,430 times stronger than carbon dioxide per unit of mass

Source:  UK Met Ozone

            CFC’s—refrigerants; decompose in the upper atmosphere and catalyze the destruction of ozone.  Phased out according to the provisions of the 1990 Montreal Protocols of 1987, 1990.

            HFC’s and HCFC’s—Substitutes for CFC’s.  HCFC to be phased out by 2040 because they destroy ozone.  HFC’s targeted for emission reductions in the  Kyoto Protocol

Residence Time:

            CFC’s—100 years (CFC-12)

            HCFC’s—12 years

            HFC’s –13 years (e.g., HFC-134a); lifetime weighted by usage—15 years

Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI) Source: NOAA ODGI

The ODGI is estimated directly from observations at Earth’s surface of the most abundant long-lived, chlorine and bromine containing gases regulated by the Montreal Protocol (15 individual chemicals). These ongoing, surface-based observations provide a direct measure of the total number of chlorine and bromine atoms in the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, contained in chemicals with lifetimes longer than approximately 0.5 yr. Because the lower atmosphere is quite well-mixed, these observations also provide an accurate estimate of the composition of air entering the stratosphere. The threat to stratospheric ozone from ODSs, however, is derived only after considering additional factors: the time it takes for air to be transported from the troposphere to different regions of the stratosphere, air mixing processes during that transport, and the rate at which ODSs photolytically degrade and liberate reactive forms of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere.


ODGI “100” is defined as 100 at the peak in ozone depleting halogen abundance as determined by NOAA observations, and zero for the 1980 level, which corresponds to when recovery of the ozone layer might be expected based on observations in the past.
  • 2018 Antarctic ODGI 79; i.e., we have progressed 21% towards the 1980 benchmark
  • 2018 Mid-latitude ODGI 55; i.e., we have progressed 45% towards the 1980 benchmark

Particulates and Ozone


Atmospheric composition is determined by the mixture of emissions to the atmosphere, transport within the atmosphere, and UV-B radiation. The key interactions determining the composition includes (1) transport of ozone from the stratosphere, (2) emission of a wide range of substances from the ground, (3) transformation of material through the action of UV radiation (and particularly UV-B), and (4) mixing of the pollutants in the atmosphere. The resultant O3 and aerosols, in turn, have impacts on human health (5) and plants (6).
Environmental Effects and Interactions of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (Chapter 6)

Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality


Mumbai, India            Photo by Abhay Singh on Unsplash

Particulate matter contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can be inhaled and cause serious health problems. Some particles less than 10 micrometers in diameter can get deep into your lungs and some may even get into your bloodstream. Of these, particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, also known as fine particles or PM2.5, pose the greatest risk to health.( EPA PM2.5) These particles are small enough to work their way deep into the lungs and into the bloodstream, where they trigger heart attack, stroke, lung cancer and asthma (Berkeley Earth Air Pollution)

Get the Airvisual 2018 World Air Quality Report Here

  • Air pollution kills more people worldwide each year than does AIDS, malaria, diabetes or tuberculosis.
  • For the United States and Europe, air pollution is equivalent in detrimental health effects to smoking 0.4 to 1.6 cigarettes per day.
  • In China the numbers are far worse; on bad days the health effects of air pollution are comparable to the harm done smoking three packs per day (60 cigarettes) by every man, woman, and child.
  • Air pollution is arguably the greatest environmental catastrophe in the world today. (Berkeley Earth Air Pollution)
2018 Ten Most Polluted Countries (Airvisual)

Unhealthy: The following groups should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

  • People with heart or lung disease
  • Children and older adults

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups: The following groups should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion

  • People with heart or lung disease
  • Children and older adults

Changes (1990 to 2015) in the aerosol column optical depth at 550 nm, computed as the mean of six global models Environmental Effects and Interactions of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (Chapter 6)

Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing

The annual greenhouse gas index (AGGI) for 2018 was 1.43—a 43% increase in radiative forcing since 1990


Radiative forcing, relative to 1750 due to carbon dioxide alone since 1979. The percent change from January 1, 1990 in this forcing is shown on the right axis.
Source: NOAA Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing

Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of all the long-lived greenhouse gases. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990, is shown on the right axis.  1990 is the year of the Montreal Protocol, which regulated ozone depleting gases.  The annual greenhouse gas index (AGGI) for 2018 was 1.43—a 43% increase in radiative forcing since 1990
NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

Pre-1978 changes in the CO2-equivalent abundance and AGGI based on the ongoing measurements of all greenhouse gases
NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

(Left vertical axis) The heating imbalance in watts per square meter relative to the year 1750 caused by all major human-produced greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12, and a group of 15 other minor contributors. Source: NOAA Climate.gov graph, based on data from NOAA ESRL.
 
Today’s atmosphere absorbs about 3 extra watts of incoming solar energy over each square meter of Earth’s surface. According to NOAA’s Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (right axis) the combined heating influence of all major greenhouse gases has increased by 41% relative to 1990.  Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

Uncertainties in Emissions Inventories Source: Climate and Clean Air Coalition

“Studies of emission inventories show that, of the major pollutants, the lowest uncertainties are associated with CO2 and SO2,which depend primarily on the quality of fossil fuel statistical data and fuel properties. Studies estimate globally an 8% uncertainty (90% confidence interval) for emissions of CO2 (Andres et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014) and 8–14% uncertainty for SO2, for a roughly 5–95% confidence interval (Smith et al., 2011). However, uncertainty for certain sectors can be much larger, for example 50% for global estimates of CO2 emissions from the combined Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector (IPCC, 2014). Similarly, uncertainty can be larger in certain regions (e.g. China) due to uncertainties in the level of coal consumption, emission factor for coal and the actual implementation and efficiency of control technology (Guan et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2015; Olivier et al., 2015; Xu et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2012). Uncertainties for global inventories of GHGs other than CO2 are much higher, being estimated by IPCC (2014) at ±20% for CH4 and ±60% for N2O (both expressed as the 90% confidence interval). Again, uncertainties for some sectors are much higher, for example, for CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields, livestock enteric fermentation and landfill.

Emissions of PM, including BC and primary OC, are more uncertain, as these pollutants usually form under poor combustion conditions in small, inefficient installations burning poor-quality fuels, which are difficult to account for, resulting in large emission variability (Bond et al., 2004; Klimont et al., 2017; Hoesly et al., 2018). Considering local data and knowledge about emission sources and their emission factors could significantly reduce these uncertainties (Zhang et al., 2009). Inconsistencies in measurements of PM emissions (e.g. in-stack or directly after stack for industry; laboratory versus real- world measurements for cookstoves) in different countries contribute to overall global inventory uncertainties. Uncertainty can also be large for activity data of relevance to PM emissions – such as poor-quality fuels (e.g. biomass) in cook stoves or brick kilns (Klimont et al 2017) or even size and composition of local vehicle fleets.

Bond et al. (2004) estimated total uncertainties of about a factor of 2 (i.e. -50% to +100%) in their global estimates of BC and OC emissions for 1996 from contained combustion (excluding open-burning of vegetation and crop residues). More recent work (Bond et al., 2013) estimated larger uncertainties for a global BC inventory for the year 2000; of around a factor of 3 for energy-related emissions and >3 when open-burning is included. Advances in emission characterization for small residential, industrial, and mobile sources will be required to reduce the scale of these uncertainties. Uncertainties in national scale BC emission estimates are likely to be less than for the global inventories described above. For example, emission uncertainties are considered to be in the order of 1.5 to 2-fold for national BC inventories recently prepared by EU countries for CLRTAP.”   (Emphasis added)